Most industry's have a "sweet spot." In an oil field, that's the one spot which produces more oil than any other. In a gold mine, it's the patch with the richest vein of gold. It's the industry segment or company division which is either the most profitable or holds the most promise for the future. Whether you decide to target an old economy company or a new economy company, there's a sweet spot out there which you can use as a fulcrum to lift your career.

Today the media is flooded with tales of disillusioned workers fleeing the dot com world. Some were caught in a tidal wave of company pink slips, others merely looked around at the growing number of empty desks and edged towards the door, while still others made the choice themselves to flee and seek security in the old economy world. But will they, in fact, find the security they seek?

In business.... taking the macro view and assuming your skills are up to snuff and you haven't made any major career blunders....the only security which is certain is being part of a successful company with a robust cash flow. One may believe, at first glance, that these elements are assured at an established old economy company and will therefore allow you as its employee to live out your days in perpetual security, riding off into the sunset on a guaranteed 401 K, but this is not necessarily so.

Old Economy Companies Face Their Perils, Too

What disasters can befall you at an old economy company? Several. Your company can have a disaster where a plant blows up or a toxic element is released into the atmosphere or finds its way into a product, or a faulty product hurts or kills customers and your company is sued into bankruptcy. Your division can be downsized or "disappeared". One reason old, established companies have longevity and continue to exist is that they are constantly changing their business model to adapt to changing circumstances. Whole divisions and product lines are scrapped in what seems like a nano second to a worker depending on them for his livelihood. You could get thrown out like the proverbial baby with the bath water one day, with precious little warning.

The company you work for can also go into a slow decline. More frequently than one might imagine, the company which is written up today as the model for efficient and profitable business practices, is the one which lands on the cover of the same business magazine a year or so later, as one which has lost its edge or its vision, has let quality control slip or somehow fallen into bad habits. Ask Texas Instruments and Rubbermaid.

But, perhaps, the most likely cause for business decline is when incumbents come under attack by newcomers, not bound by traditions or old ways of doing things, with no investment in outdated infrastructure, able to leverage the future, unfettered by the past.

The Only Constant is Change

So, is this really the best time to walk away from the dot com world and look for security at an old economy company? Last week Montgomery Ward, one of America's pioneer companies, announced it was winding down its business, starting to shutter its stores. Today, American Airlines is poised to buy TWA. Jaguar, Aston Martin, Land Rover and Volvo have long since become part of Ford Motor Company.

Yes, Ford is an old, respected and safe brand but so was Volvo. When assessing one's next career move, it is always wise to try to see around the corner, remembering that the only constant is change.

Targeting the Sweet Spot

Most industry's have a "sweet spot." In an oil field, that's the one spot which produces more oil than any other. In a gold mine, it's the patch with the richest vein of gold. It's the industry segment or company division which is either the most profitable or holds the most promise for the future.

Old Economy Candidate Companies - Best of Both Worlds

If you're looking for steady paychecks and possible 401 Ks in your future, medical and dental benefits acting as Dramamine to steady the uncertain ride, but still hoping for more upside potential, then think of targeting an old economy companyés online division.

The best and brightest of the old economy companies, having watched and learned from the first wave of dot coms.... like the first troops on the beach, the most likely to fall in battle....... will come to the Net smarter, more able, having hired more experienced players from the fallen dot coms. Some will spin off. Some will merge. All with be leavened with experience and start with more money, better able to survive mistakes and miscalculations.

A company may open its own online division to build and manage its web site or it may create an entirely new, independent company to tackle this task, on the theory that the new Net company will be more nimble and Net savvy. Wal-Mart, Nordstrom, and Proctor & Gamble have all chosen to go this route. Landing a job in the on line division of an old economy company could give you the stability and cash flow of the old economy with the efficiencies, energy and, at least, some of the innovation of a dot com, a very satisfactory trade -off.

New Economy Candidate Companies - Survival of the Fittest

Back to the reasons old economy businesses may eventually fail. Innovation, change and creativity happen at an ever increasing speed and velocity on the Net today. New companies manned by up to the minute Net warriors, in tune with today's wired world are still able to conquer whole markets.

Of course, this is a contradiction. With so many dot coms going crash in the night, what makes anyone think they can challenge old economy companies? The simple answer is that, after the dot com shake out, the companies left standing will have gone through the tornado and what you see will be the survival of the fittest, made stronger by struggle, leavened with experience, filled with new ideas and insights, roaring to compete. The challenge is to pick the right dot com company, the one which will emerge standing.

Dot Com Survivors May Grab the Lion's Share of the Rewards

Look, for example, at new economy company, Documentum. According to Business 2.0 ,"after hitting a wall in 1999, Documentum traded at a new, all-time high in December 2000. The company's content management software resides in a market sweet spot, as established companies embrace the Internet and expand their Web applications."

By providing a basic service on the Net, a Web-centric application, which enables users to share information with customers, suppliers and employees around the globe, Documentum has placed itself at the center, or the sweet spot of the Net. Old economy companies continue to expand their Web applications and new companies get on the Net daily. Documentum, like many of today's Net companys which provide basic services enabling other businesses to use the Net, has a future limited only by their own business savvy.