My company is located in the high tech corridor that runs between San Antonio and Austin, Texas, so I am more than a bit familiar with the wild swings and boom and bust cycles in both high tech and housing.

I was slam bang in the middle of the dot com bust of 2001, having gotten on the Net with the pioneers at the onset of Netscape and the graphical browser. I remember the wailing and the moaning.  I even remember a “friend”…… a rather cliche-ridden friend, and not such a rock solid friend, it turns out… saying: “Rather see ya than be ya.”  Even in the midst of the crash and the doom and gloom, I retorted,”Are you kidding?  A very small per cent of the people are on the Net yet.  It’s in its very earliest stages.  Bubbles are about over hype and not real profits.  The Net is the future.”

Of course, I had kept my costs low and had to make a profit.  I didn’t have a venture capitalist leaning over my shoulder and breathing down my neck saying “Capture eyeballs, forget profit.  It’s a real estate grab and a race to critical mass.”  I was slowed down by the need to build a profitable business now, not later.  And, that turned out to be a good thing.

So the question is, will green tech be the next big bubble that bursts?

Here’s how I look at it.

Business is all about cycles.  If a particular sector becomes overheated and rampant with speculation, there  naturally are going to be some wild rides.

Let me put it this way.  If you got all excited about real estate values booming and put your money down on two high dollar condos in Miami or a couple of spec houses in Phoenix, you may have to walk away from your investment with only your experience to show for it.

If, on the other hand, you bought your own home, or a rent house in Phoenix, at a reasonable price, you can just live in it, or rent it out for enough to cover the mortgage, for two or three years or most of your life.  The real estate market will recover and your investment will recoup its losses and continue to rise. All you need is time.  And, if you structure your investments or your business right, you will have time.

Time is the answer to most investments and most businesses.  Time to grow.  Time to accumulate…..assets, customers, understanding, markets. Time to ride out the downturns and take advantage of the upturns.

That’s why it’s so important to conserve your cash, and if you’re a small business or an entrepreneur, run your business with an eye towards thrift.  That will give you the ability to withstand the sometimes sudden shocks and typhoons that hit the market and your business in particular.

If you create a business that offers real value, and you are careful with your cash, you will survive and thrive.

Green business, or the green tech sector, is no different I think. It offers a lot of value and increasing efficiency for the future.  It is only at the very beginning, as the Net was in the 90′s.  It’s a good time to get in before the field becomes incredibly overcrowded.  Will it be here for the long term?  I would make a serious bet on it.  In fact, I am making some serious bets on it.  Just put on your hard hat for that inevitable fall out when the speculators have climbed too high and created an avalanche of nay sayers.  But that, too , will pass. And you will still be there to reap the rewards.