As I’ve mentioned, I’m launching a site or two on “green biz”, so I’m trying to keep up with what’s out there.  In 12 Green Consumer Trends Mean Business Opportunity for Eco-Entrepreneurs,  Scott tells us:

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My company is located in the high tech corridor that runs between San Antonio and Austin, Texas, so I am more than a bit familiar with the wild swings and boom and bust cycles in both high tech and housing.

I was slam bang in the middle of the dot com bust of 2001, having gotten on the Net with the pioneers at the onset of Netscape and the graphical browser. I remember the wailing and the moaning.  I even remember a “friend”…… a rather cliche-ridden friend, and not such a rock solid friend, it turns out… saying: “Rather see ya than be ya.”  Even in the midst of the crash and the doom and gloom, I retorted,”Are you kidding?  A very small per cent of the people are on the Net yet.  It’s in its very earliest stages.  Bubbles are about over hype and not real profits.  The Net is the future.”

Of course, I had kept my costs low and had to make a profit.  I didn’t have a venture capitalist leaning over my shoulder and breathing down my neck saying “Capture eyeballs, forget profit.  It’s a real estate grab and a race to critical mass.”  I was slowed down by the need to build a profitable business now, not later.  And, that turned out to be a good thing.

So the question is, will green tech be the next big bubble that bursts?

Here’s how I look at it.

Business is all about cycles.  If a particular sector becomes overheated and rampant with speculation, there  naturally are going to be some wild rides.

Let me put it this way.  If you got all excited about real estate values booming and put your money down on two high dollar condos in Miami or a couple of spec houses in Phoenix, you may have to walk away from your investment with only your experience to show for it.

If, on the other hand, you bought your own home, or a rent house in Phoenix, at a reasonable price, you can just live in it, or rent it out for enough to cover the mortgage, for two or three years or most of your life.  The real estate market will recover and your investment will recoup its losses and continue to rise. All you need is time.  And, if you structure your investments or your business right, you will have time.

Time is the answer to most investments and most businesses.  Time to grow.  Time to accumulate…..assets, customers, understanding, markets. Time to ride out the downturns and take advantage of the upturns.

That’s why it’s so important to conserve your cash, and if you’re a small business or an entrepreneur, run your business with an eye towards thrift.  That will give you the ability to withstand the sometimes sudden shocks and typhoons that hit the market and your business in particular.

If you create a business that offers real value, and you are careful with your cash, you will survive and thrive.

Green business, or the green tech sector, is no different I think. It offers a lot of value and increasing efficiency for the future.  It is only at the very beginning, as the Net was in the 90′s.  It’s a good time to get in before the field becomes incredibly overcrowded.  Will it be here for the long term?  I would make a serious bet on it.  In fact, I am making some serious bets on it.  Just put on your hard hat for that inevitable fall out when the speculators have climbed too high and created an avalanche of nay sayers.  But that, too , will pass. And you will still be there to reap the rewards.

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Who’s there is President Elect Barack Obama with the policy and government money.  Visionary and author Tom Friedman is there with public vision. And iconic VC John is there with private investment.  What’s not to like about that group of movers and shakers?

Once again, Tim Berry nails it when it comes to being forward looking and prescient about which way the winds of business are blowing.

In 1+1+1 = More than Three on Clean Energy Tim Berry discusses the what the tea leaves are telling us about the business environment for clean energy in the near future: “Sometimes things come together and mean more together than they would separately. Looking forward, clean energy is going to be very big.

I don’t want to get into one of those “this-is-a-good-business-to-start” suggestions, because you don’t just decide to do a new business, look at what’s hot, and end up with clean energy. Obviously you have to be operating in that area already, with interests and outlook and probably education and skill set, to be building a business. Still, there are the come-along clean energy businesses, the websites, the information sites, distribution, and so on. I think this is worth special attention.

Consider these three things which happened this week and last:

1. Barack Obama and Energy Policy

Most of us have seen it in the news coverage, or the debates, or on his websites. One of Barack Obama’s most important points is the need for a huge push in clean energy. He’s talked about finding ways to invest $15 billion per year. This looks and feels like it could be the equivalent of John Kennedy’s national call to action in 1962 when he challenged the nation to have a man walking on the moon before the end of the decade.

2. Thomas Friedman’s Public Vision

His new book is called Hot, Flat, and Crowded and I’ve posted about it before on this blog. Tuesday night he offered a quick summary on The Daily Show. I think he’s on the right track. (If you don’t see the video here, try the source video on Comedy Central.)

3. Venture Capital and Clean Energy

John Doerr has been a venture capital industry leader for 25 years (or so). Click on this video (or, if you can see it below, watch it here) of an interview-style presentation he did last week at the Web 2.0 conference. Notice what he’s saying about venture investment and clean energy.

This conversation goes over a lot of important ground about financial crisis and venture capital, so it’s worth listening to the full 32 minutes. But in this context of clean energy, notice how clear John Doerr is talking about the investor interest.”

At last week’s Web 2.0 Summit a journalist asked “if green technology was here to stay, or if it is just another fad that would die at the hands of dropping gas prices and a recession. “I think it’s one of the world’s biggest opportunities,” the participant responded

Of course you have to have the interest and skill set to find a niche in the clean energy area.  But there seem to be more paths opening up all the time.  Think about it.  Write and tell us if you have ideas to share.

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