Tag Archives: Dot-com bubble

Green Tech – Next Boom Or Bubble Set To Burst?

My company is located in the high tech corridor that runs between San Antonio and Austin, Texas, so I am more than a bit familiar with the wild swings and boom and bust cycles in both high tech and housing.

I was slam bang in the middle of the dot com bust of 2001, having gotten on the Net with the pioneers at the onset of Netscape and the graphical browser. I remember the wailing and the moaning.  I even remember a “friend”…… a rather cliche-ridden friend, and not such a rock solid friend, it turns out… saying: “Rather see ya than be ya.”  Even in the midst of the crash and the doom and gloom, I retorted,”Are you kidding?  A very small per cent of the people are on the Net yet.  It’s in its very earliest stages.  Bubbles are about over hype and not real profits.  The Net is the future.”

Of course, I had kept my costs low and had to make a profit.  I didn’t have a venture capitalist leaning over my shoulder and breathing down my neck saying “Capture eyeballs, forget profit.  It’s a real estate grab and a race to critical mass.”  I was slowed down by the need to build a profitable business now, not later.  And, that turned out to be a good thing.

So the question is, will green tech be the next big bubble that bursts?

Here’s how I look at it.

Business is all about cycles.  If a particular sector becomes overheated and rampant with speculation, there  naturally are going to be some wild rides.

Let me put it this way.  If you got all excited about real estate values booming and put your money down on two high dollar condos in Miami or a couple of spec houses in Phoenix, you may have to walk away from your investment with only your experience to show for it.

If, on the other hand, you bought your own home, or a rent house in Phoenix, at a reasonable price, you can just live in it, or rent it out for enough to cover the mortgage, for two or three years or most of your life.  The real estate market will recover and your investment will recoup its losses and continue to rise. All you need is time.  And, if you structure your investments or your business right, you will have time.

Time is the answer to most investments and most businesses.  Time to grow.  Time to accumulate…..assets, customers, understanding, markets. Time to ride out the downturns and take advantage of the upturns.

That’s why it’s so important to conserve your cash, and if you’re a small business or an entrepreneur, run your business with an eye towards thrift.  That will give you the ability to withstand the sometimes sudden shocks and typhoons that hit the market and your business in particular.

If you create a business that offers real value, and you are careful with your cash, you will survive and thrive.

Green business, or the green tech sector, is no different I think. It offers a lot of value and increasing efficiency for the future.  It is only at the very beginning, as the Net was in the 90′s.  It’s a good time to get in before the field becomes incredibly overcrowded.  Will it be here for the long term?  I would make a serious bet on it.  In fact, I am making some serious bets on it.  Just put on your hard hat for that inevitable fall out when the speculators have climbed too high and created an avalanche of nay sayers.  But that, too , will pass. And you will still be there to reap the rewards.

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Rorschach Test For Entrepreneurs : If You See Opportunity, Start A Company

I have built start-ups throughout my life and also have been fortunate enough to be surrounded by successful entrepreneurs throughout my life. And I can tell you one thing:  They may be fazed and affected, like everyone else, but they are unstoppable and undaunted by droughts, depressions, recessions, and natural or man-made disasters. Entrepreneurs and steely businessmen or women don’t stop, don’t look back, don’t complain, they just keep on powering through, whatever the tough times are. The key is these people know they are in it for life, good times or bad, and they may have to adjust their strategy but the game remains the same and they’re in it to win it. They just keep on going, like the famed energizer bunny.

I got onto the Net, riding the wave of the Netscape browser, surfing on the crest of an Internet boom, then weathered the dot com bust, really not so much the worse for wear, just with a little belt tightening, as I have learned to be a lean, mean operator, which I recommend to you as well, at least when you’re starting out.  See Start Your Own Small Business Using More Ingenuity, Less Cash.

In  10 Reasons This is the Best Time to Build a Startup, NewsCred Blog gives it’s reasons why it’s a great time to start:

“I’m not a blind optimist, but I think the best suggestion in this situation is simple: forget the depressing “reality” painted by the so-called pundits, and just get on with it. Why? Because I really believe the naysayers are full of it, and it really is a great time to be building a startup. Here’s why:

10) You can’t dwell on what you cannot control and change, so this is the perfect opportunity to concentrate on the present and focus on delighting your customers TODAY. I don’t practice Buddhism, but I think Buddha got it spot on: “Do not dwell in the past, do not dream of the future – concentrate your mind on the present moment.”

9) Capital efficiency is your friend (thanks Fred). You always wanted to do it, but now you have no excuse. Optimize spending, optimize investing, optimize hiring, optimize everything. This one is Buddha version 2.0: “Yesterday is a canceled check. Tomorrow is a promissory note. What we have today is ready cash – so spend it wisely.”

8) All your competitors with million dollar burn-rates are in trouble.

7) The current crop of startup winners were all created right after the Dot-Com bubble burst. Naysayers were out in droves in 2001 as well. Look at what happened to some of the entrepreneurs who chose to ignore the doom and gloom and just got on with it. $$$.

6) There are fewer distractions. All the hype surrounding web startups and the Web 2.0 bubble will disappear. Rather than worry about flipping your company or XYZ buying ABC for $100 million dollars, you can focus on your product.

5) Yes, product. In times like these, let your product speak louder than anything else. If you build something people want and need, all you need to do is make sure you can continue providing it. If you stop today, it’s going to be pretty hard for people to get to your product. Don’t disappoint them.

4) Build a great team, and don’t worry about paying them boatloads of money. You don’t have money, they don’t expect money, so its a pretty decent ZOPA (zone of probable agreement). There’ll be plenty of talent available. If said talent comes with high salary requirements, slap them across the face. Then tell them “thanks, but no thanks.”

3) Necessity is a big … mother (of invention). You’re brain synapses should be firing on all cylinders and creative juices flowing non-stop. A little creativity will go a long way, and no one will dismiss your crazy ideas if it can a) save money or b) extend your runway or c) get you sales. Also guerrilla marketing is fun.

2) Remember that business model you’ve been putting away for a while? Well, dust it off and starting focusing on it now. During the good times, things like business models often seem like perks or bonuses. Bad times are a blessing in disguise – you can bring back the biz model and put it front and center. God help you if you don’t have one.

1) You’re an entrepreneur. Your whole purpose of being is so that you can take scarce resources, optimize like hell and get maximum output from the least input. This is your time to shine.

The most important thing to remember is if you quit, there’s a 0% chance of success. Life’s too short to worry, so just go out there and have fun. Build a kick-a.. product that’ll delight your customers.

And don’t worry about the world coming to an end today. It’s already tomorrow in Australia.”

Now, I happen to wholeheartedly agree.  And I can say, looking back, even in the middle of the dot com bust, I said: “Are they kidding?  Not even 10% of the world is on the Net yet. The Net is only beginning.  This is a blip on the map.”   And this is only a blip on the map as well.  Work now and you’ll be better positioned for when the economy roars back as it inevitably will

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Start Your Own Small Business Using More Ingenuity, Less Cash

Image representing Yahoo! as depicted in Crunc...

Image via CrunchBase

Starting one’s own business is always an invigorating but somewhat anxiety provoking experience. You are about to leave the comfort zone of college, your home, a big corporation or even a non-profit or any other type of salaried employment. In exchange you have independence and the chance to pursue your dream. The flip side is you no longer have large resources –money, manpower, credit, expertise, contacts, name recognition– all you have is …. you. You also have the rent or the telephone, the travel , marketing , research , direct mail and whatever else to pay for. If you have a payroll or even someone to come in and water the plants every two weeks, that’s your responsibility, too. No wonder it’s an anxiety provoking experience.

The thought that keeps most entrepreneurs motivated at those first insecure moments is the firm knowledge that great risk can reap great rewards.

How do you get started?

I was reading this advice by Mark Cuban, Owner of Dallas Mavericks, entrepreneur with a $2.5 billion net worth who made his fortune  starting Audionet with a partner in 1995, combining their mutual interest in college basketball and webcasting. Audionet launched with a single server and ISDN line, went on to become Broadcast.com and, in 1999, during the Dot-com boom, Broadcast.com was acquired by Yahoo! for $5.9 billion in Yahoo! stock. ( Parenthetically, Mark was booted off “Dancing with the Stars” in almost no time flat, proving that being a billionaire does not give you smooth co-ordination, much less allow you to glide across the dance floor like Fred Astaire.)

Mark’s blog is blog maverick.  He wrote a blog about How to Get Rich which starts out advising us to be  obsessive about saving our money.  He goes on to say:

“The 2nd rule for getting rich is getting smart. Investing your time in yourself and becoming knowledgeable about the business of something you really love to do

It doesn’t matter what it is. Whatever your hobbies, interests, passions are. Find the one you love the best and GET A JOB in the business that supports it.

It could be as a clerk, a salesperson, whatever you can find. You have to start learning the business somewhere.  Instead of paying to go to school somewhere, you are getting paid to learn.  It may not be the perfect job, but there is no perfect path to getting rich.

Before or after work and on weekends, every single day, read everything there is to read about the business. Go to trade shows, read the trade magazines, spend a lot of time talking to the people you do business with about their business and the people they buy from.

This is not a short term project. We aren’t talking days. We aren’t talking months. We are talking years. Lots of years and maybe decades. I didn’t say this was a get rich quick scheme. This is a get rich path.”

Cuban goes on to talk about times of uncertainty in business, that there will always be booms and busts and one has to take advantage of them: “Booms are when the smart people sell. Busts are when rich people started on their path to wealth.”

That, of course, is easier said than done since no one really knows when there will be a boom or, more ominously, a bust.  One has to wonder if, when Cuban sold to Yahoo he knew he was in the middle of the boom.

AdvancingWomen.com believes, whether boom or bust, in order to have staying power, one needs to operate their business on lean, mean principles so you can ride out the busts and be ready for the boom times, whether you choose to sell or not:

Watch Your Pennies; They’re Coming Out of Your Pocket Now

Starting your own business, whether home-based, in a loft , strip mall , business incubator, or at a seriously impressive office space, requires some serious thinking about whether you are ready to accept certain realities. Very probably, if you are leaving a large well- financed corporation , organization, university or government agency, you are going to have to work harder and make do with less.

For some, it is a wrenching adjustment to scale down and have to balance decisions about spending money to save time, or working longer hours to save cash and increase cash flow. Necessities, like receptionists and clerks in large offices become luxuries in small offices. If you can do it yourself , it costs nothing. Yes, your time may be worth $100 an hour, but is anyone paying you that between 8 pm and midnight.?

As humbling at it may be, you may realize, not only can you not afford to have someone else water and fertilize the plants in your office, you can’t even afford the plants. The good news is that professional business analysts like Peter Lynch who ran the Magellen Fund and studied thousands of businesses, didn’t like seeing a ficus in an office…. or a mahogany desk, or good art or fine china. Lynch only felt good about start up companies on the second floors of strip centers with metal desks and linoleum flooring… or something comparable… because that made a statement the people running the company were serious about making and saving money. So, often, Lynch invested Magellan’s money in their company’s stocks and that cash infusion got them roaring. If you watch your pennies and forego the ficus and the palms, this could happen to you.

One always has to make tough choices to cut costs. Here are some suggestions from experienced start up entrepreneurs:

  • Keep overhead costs to a minimum. Rent a modest office. Or work out of your home. Many entrepreneurs today keep costs low with “virtual offices” and outsourced workers across the city or the globe.
  • Keep your desks and equipment functional not “showy”. ( The impression you make with showy equipment might not be what you intend… too much money spent on decor spells “inexperience” to the battle scarred.)
  • Buy second hand. Do you think any good antique dealers either buy retail or shop at Office City? That’s not where the bargains are or the best looking furniture either.
  • Forget support staff…. call don’t write… use your email…avoid paper. If you are really cheap, or don’t have $100 bucks for a copier/scanner, you can email it over to Fedex-Kinko’s every evening and pick it up in the morning.
  • Answer your own phone and dispense with calls in a few minutes… or spend $30 have a “virtual receptionist” like One Box, routing your calls to any phone number or associate, forwarding email, voice mail, fax notifications to your inbox where you can handle them at your leisure.
  • Work until seven and eat a little later. You can do all your “support” chores after regular office hours. Tell people you were raised in Europe or Latin America and are accustomed to later evening hours.
  • Don’t skimp on a professional logo, business cards or letterhead stationary. They are part of your direct dealing with the public and come under the category of marketing, which should always be first rate. But with today’s software programs you should be able to stick to simple design, with a professional logo and just send it out to be printed.
  • And don’t forget to market. No matter how small or how thrifty you are, you can’t afford not to have a budget for this. Just be sure you make the effort to learn what really works and is effective in your field before you actually spend money marketing. You have to make every dollar and every penny count. The journey to success is long and full of unexpected pot holes… you never want to run out of cash along the way.
  • Remember how and where you do your work isn’t as important as what you do. If working in your small business is giving you the opportunity to do interesting and useful work, that’s more important and more gratifying than having either a ficus or a $5,000 copier.
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